A world where economic diversification is often seen as the path to financial stability, Lebanon stands out as a nation that has primarily relied on non-agricultural sectors for its economic sustenance. Despite its rich agricultural potential, the country has chosen to prioritize other industries. As Lebanon grapples with a severe economic crisis, it’s crucial to examine the consequences of this strategy and consider whether a renewed focus on agriculture could offer a more resilient path forward.
The main problem Lebanon is currently facing!
Lebanon is currently not placing sufficient emphasis on the agriculture and aquaculture sectors as potential revenue sources.
This neglect comes at a time of economic hardship, marked by a consistent decline in GDP over the years.
Problem Evidence:
Despite the presence of fertile land for agriculture and planting, there is a notable absence of qualified and active employees in this sector, as evidenced by the consistent decline in the percentage of the workforce engaged in agriculture over the years. (the percentage decreases from 5.3%in 2000 to 3.8% in 2021 low percentage of the total employment)
the contributions of forestry and aquaculture to the GDP have been on a continuous decline. (The percentage decreased from 6.3% in 2000 to 1.4% in 2021, indicating a relatively low contribution)
Lebanon’s GDP growth has been consistently decreasing over the years, reaching a troubling -7% in 2021.
Potential solutions
Placing greater emphasis on the agriculture and aquaculture sectors by providing support to local farmers and expanding cultivation areas to meet domestic demands while also generating surplus for export.
Additionally, increasing the number of professionals in this field can be achieved by encouraging universities to prioritize agriculture-related majors and motivating students to pursue studies in this area.
This will result in:
Increased revenue generation and improvements in Lebanon’s GDP after expanding cultivation areas and supporting the agriculture and aquaculture sectors.
Real life success story:
In the summer of 2023, two Lebanese citizens seized the opportunity to cultivate a green, organic farm in the fertile lands of southern Lebanon. Taking advantage of the region’s fertile soil, expansive agricultural land, and favorable weather conditions, they cultivated a variety of fruits and vegetables.
With an initial investment of $1,500, they managed to yield a net profit of $5,000 in just four months. This success story highlights the untapped potential of agriculture and organic farming in Lebanon.
The successful cultivation they were able to get!!!
This solution is validated by the real case example presented at the beginning:
Based on the real-life example, if Lebanon gave more importance to the agriculture sector, this would lead to an increase in domestic production. This, in turn, could serve as a partial solution to the economic and financial crisis the country is facing. Moreover, it would also create more employment opportunities for Lebanese citizens, thereby contributing to a more sustainable and diversified economy. Emphasizing the agriculture sector can play a vital role in bolstering the nation’s economic stability and reducing its reliance on other sectors.
finally, emphasizing agriculture in Lebanon as a means of economic revitalization directly supports SDG 8’s objectives by creating decent work, fostering sustainable economic growth, promoting economic diversification, and facilitating skills development in the agricultural sector.
As part of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s). Goal 8 is focused on “Promoting sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all”. In the city of Beirut, a group of us within the Lebanese ministry of tourism were teamed up with a group of people from the UN development program, and we were tasked to focus on SDG Goal 8.
We were thinking about a pressing challenge in the situation we are in now: if Lebanon is perceived as a tourist destination. Potential tourists/visitors to Lebanon always have something stopping them from visiting Lebanon, especially those who do not know much about it and have not visited it before.
These perceptions were highly influenced by the way the media portrays Lebanon with all its economic and political instabilities. We questioned what we could do to change this narrative, and how could we shift people’s perceptions of what Lebanon is to influence them to travel to this country full of rich culture and breathtaking landscapes.
The graph above shows the change in Lebanon’s GDP over the years, indicating a sudden fall after 2019. In the economic situation which we are currently in, Lebanon needs something to help revitalize this situation and help it grow again. For that reason, we launched a program to revitalize the Lebanese economy through tourism enhancement.
We analyzed several sources of data and came up with the visualization under. The visualization indicates there is a direct correlation between Lebanon’s GDP and tourism receipts. Up till 2018 and 2019 (shaded 1), we see Lebanon’s GDP and tourism receipts both at their highest points. After those years, we see a sudden drop in 2020 in both indicators (shaded 2).
For this reason, we did the following:
We invited travel bloggers, and social media influencers from around the world and we specifically targeted those with a large amount of following and influence. The goal of this was not to bring them so that they could showcase Lebanon to their following base. The goal behind this was to immerse them in the Lebanese culture and the activities and experiences they will cherish from being in Lebanon. That way, what they share with their audience is authentic, and true to the emotions they felt.
We also targeted other areas of improvement which were important for the success of the project. Those are regarding: infrastructure, marketing, and local community involvement. We coordinated with municipalities, as well as local businesses to ensure that all our key points are addressed to enhance the tourist experience in our country. We think that our concentrated efforts to enhance the tourism experience and actively include local communities are what will be responsible for revitalizing the Lebanese economy in the right direction again. In addition to stimulating the travel and tourism industry, our project will potentially have a positive knock-on effect on the whole economy, generating jobs and encouraging sustainable growth.
Problem Statement: Lebanon is facing a healthcare crisis. With the government’s dwindling support, an increasing share of medical costs is being paid out-of-pocket by citizens, many of whom are already in financial distress. This trend is pushing families into poverty and leaving many without access to essential healthcare services.
Lebanon, once known for its exemplary healthcare system in the Middle East, is now grappling with an unprecedented crisis. The Lebanese healthcare system is in dire straits, with citizens bearing an increasingly unsustainable financial burden for their medical needs. This deepening healthcare crisis is not merely a statistic; it’s a testament to the resilience and despair of a population fighting for their right to health.
Here, we’ll shine a light on the escalating out-of-pocket health expenditure in Lebanon.
This crucial indicator represents the proportion of healthcare costs that individuals are shouldering, a burden that has been growing steadily over the years. Our visual exploration aims to bring into focus the profound implications of this trend for Lebanese families grappling with a healthcare system in turmoil.
First visualization takes us on a global journey through a heat map that color-codes countries based on their out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure. Lebanon stands out, marked by a distinct hue that signifies one of the highest rates in its region and across the world. This map transcends borders, offering a comparative perspective that underscores Lebanon’s critical position and the urgent need for reform. It’s a visual call to action, urging us to look beyond our immediate surroundings and recognize the shared struggle for accessible and affordable healthcare.
The second visualization presents a horizontal barplot that lays bare the relentless climb of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure in Lebanon. Each bar, extending further year by year, is a stark representation of the growing financial load shouldered by Lebanese families. This visual narrative is not just about rising costs; it’s about the human stories behind these numbers—stories of sacrifice, tough choices, and resilience in the face of a healthcare system that demands more than many can afford.
A Call to Heal Lebanon’s Healthcare System:
Lebanon’s healthcare crisis, marked by rising out-of-pocket costs, extends a plea for international intervention. As the Lebanese government grapples with its own challenges, the need for external support becomes critical. This call for aid isn’t just about funds; it’s a call for global solidarity, expertise, and resources to help a nation in distress.
It’s time for the world to unite in support of Lebanon, offering a lifeline to its healthcare system and hope to its people.
Contributors:
Lara Baltaji, Hadi Knaiber, Batoul Ramadan, Abdallah Yahfoufi, Nour Azakir, Herbert Pritzki, Shadi Youssef
Background about the Lebanese Crisis:
For nearly three years now, Lebanon has been facing the most devastating financial crisis in the modern era. The crisis started in October 2019 and aggravated by the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and by the massive Port explosion on August 4, 2020. As a result, the black market dollar exchange of the Lebanese Lira increased from 1515 L.L. (before the crisis) to around 40,000 L.L(today) marking an almost 2500% increase.
You can find below a visual that shows the change of the official LBP/Dollar exchange rate over time until this November 2022.
This huge increase came with countless economic impacts on inflation, unemployment and poverty. Lebanon’s severe crisis which was blamed on the government’s corruption and failure has led to massive impacts on the Lebanese currency causing extreme poverty, unemployment, medicine shortage, electricity shortage, fuel shortage, malnutrition and much more. You can find below a visual that shows the change of the Food Inflation and the Food Consumer Price Index with the LBP/Dollar Exchange Rate over time until this March 2022.
The huge inflation was directly reflected on the prices of basic food commodities in Lebanon ever since the start of the economic crisis in 2019. What is meant by basic food commodities is the minimum raw agricultural or animal products sufficient to satisfy the nutrition needs of an average household which comprise of:
Cereals and Tubers (rice, wheat, corn, starch)
Meat, Fish, Eggs and Seafood
Dairy (milk, cheese, labne)
Oil and Fats
Vegetables and Fruits
Sugar and Salt
The slope of increase before 2021, however, was quite subtle due to the fact that food commodities were subsidised by the government back then. As the Central Bank started to run out of resources to keep the subsidies, the government lifted them in March 2021. That is when the increase in prices of basic food commodities started to follow a much steeper slope. The below interactive visual shows the change in average prices of food commodities in Lebanon over the years.
Problem:
According to the World Bank, food price fluctuations between Lebanese markets are caused by the Lebanese government’s “deliberately inadequate policy responses”. Due to the inadequate policy responses by the Lebanese government and due to the fact that Lebanon follows a free market economy, the problem of increased food prices started to worsen as not only are prices increasing, but now they are further inconsistent between markets in the different Lebanese regions . This adds an additional overwhelming problem to the many hardships Lebanese people are facing today.
In order to provide evidence for this issue, we decided to visit two supermarkets in Beirut and observe the differences in food prices. The variation in prices of the same food products was absolutely surprising. The below figure shows the price receipts of the two supermarkets.
Our next step was to explore two datasets issued by World Bank and World Food Programme Price Database. Our data explorations go hand in hand with our observed hypothesis which reveals that “there exist extreme and unexplained variations in food prices around markets in different Lebanese regions”.
The variation in prices of different food commodities has been an existing situation for many years now in Lebanon. This situation has exacerbated ever since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2019 as the price control responses have become inadequate. The following dashboard shows a comparison of prices of the different food categories between the different Lebanese districts over the years until 2021
The following bar graph shows a comparison of prices of specific food products between the different Lebanese districts over the years until 2022
Below we present the percentage difference of some food products between different Lebanese districts in 2022 (until October):
The average price of a one kilogram bag of wheat flour in Mount Lebanon was 28,000 LBP whereas in Baabak-El Hermel 10,000 LBP, recording a 95% difference.
The average price of a 160 gram Akkawi cheese in the South was 60,000 LBP whereas in Akkar 40,000 LBP, recording a 40% difference for cheese.
The average price of a can of powdered milk (2.5 kg) in Mount Lebanon was 325,000 LBP whereas in Akkar 210,000 LBP, recording a 40% difference for milk.
The average price of a 3.6 Litre gallon of olive oil in the South was 500,000 LBP whereas in El Nabatieh 430,000 LBP, recording a 15% difference for oil.
And the list of unexplained price variations between districts just keeps growing and growing.
Finally, in order to further prove our hypothesis, we conducted interviews with random Lebanese residents walking on Beirut’s seaside. When asked whether they were noticing price variations between supermarkets, most interviewees agreed that there exist obvious price variations of basic food commodities between different supermarkets. They added that this variation is not related to the location of the markets, for in many cases they have noticed that even markets lying walking steps away from one another vary in food prices. This means that the price variations cannot be explained by the products’ cost of transportation. It is only explained by the fact that there exists no governmental supervision.
Proposed Solution:
In Lebanon, there are laws that protect consumers from monopoly and from overpricing. However, as with many other laws, the government is unable to strongly implement these laws and monitor the prices of the supermarkets especially in the areas that are far from Beirut. For that, we propose a website, which can later be developed into a mobile application. The website shows the official prices of basic food products in the Lebanese market which are regularly updated by the Ministry of Economy whenever a significant change in the LBP exchange rate occurs. It also displays the prices of these same products in different Lebanese supermarkets. This way, Lebanese consumers will be able to check the prices of products before they go shopping, and thus can tell which supermarkets are following the official prices specified by the ministry and which supermarkets are overpriced.
We are working on involving Lebanese consumers in our website. As we all know, the Ministry of Economy has a limited number of employees. Thus they will not be able to monitor the prices in all the Lebanese shops. A better way for monitoring prices in different supermarkets would be to include consumers in the process by giving them the chance to report prices directly on our website. This means that consumers will act as data collectors, and thus can contribute to the success of this project. Now, the ministry will be able to track the overpriced supermarkets and take the necessary measures.
We also hope to develop the website idea into a mobile application, which is a proposition heavily backed by the Ministry of Economy.
Solution Validation:
The application concept we came up with to tackle the problem needed to be validated in order to be put into action. We needed means to check if our ideology could in fact lead to a change in the real world or it is only a theory on a piece of paper.
Therefore, we decided to take the view points of two parties:
The Lebanese citizens which are the potential future users of our application in order to check if they are actually willing to use it and if it could lead to a change in their lives and to the country in general
The General Director of the Lebanese Ministry of Economy and Trade, Dr. Mohamad Abou Haidar to assess the practicality and the feasibility of the concept by a professional in the field.
In the streets of Beirut, we went down asking random people about the issue and the proposed solution. All in all, people supported the idea and many claimed that they would be using the application without any doubt and believed that it would make a positive change in the pricing system in Lebanon.
On 25 November 2022, our team visited the director general of the Lebanese Ministry of Economy and Trade, Dr. Mohamad Abou Haidar. We interviewed Dr. Abou Haidar about how practical it is to do such an application and how much it could lead to change and the interview was recorded. Dr. Abou Haidar claimed that this application would lead to a significant change in several aspects. First, this application will help fight corruption in terms of pricings because it will be directly synced to the ministry, so any abnormal pricings will be directly reported to the ministry and the issue will be transferred to the responsible authorities that are able to take any legal action. The ministry also is trying to work on implementing online services that protect consumers’ rights along with the UNDP and other organizations. So, this application will be aligned with the goal of the ministry, since it is online-based. In addition to that, it will play a role in controlling the pricings in the market since it substitutes the need for the huge number of employees and the human resources needed that, no matter how many, cannot roam around the entire supermarkets and stores in all the Lebanese regions. He also said that the complaints of the people will reach the ministry in a more efficient and effective way, because they are via the application and therefore, the ministry can know about the concerns and the issues in a much faster way. Finally, Dr. Mohamad summarized the idea by being a “win-win situation” for both the ministry and the consumers. This is because it will fulfil the needs of the consumers by knowing the exact pricings of the items in any supermarket with a press of a button, will ensure that the rights of the consumers are protected, and will lead to the right selection of the place to be visited. It will also help the ministry in terms of protecting consumers’ rights, censorship and supervision.
Conclusion:
The concept website was presented to the General Director of the Lebanese Ministry of Economy and again, the solution was validated and approved by the ministry by providing us the full support in order to create this website as soon as possible in order to help the people followed by the country in general.
Ending with a future perspective, we believe that this problem is crucial to be solved in the very near future because of the damage it is causing in several aspects ranging from economic, financial to social. We, the people and the ministry have bets that our application concept could be a positive game changer in this issue. Solving this problem marks one of the battles against corruption, and is an attempt to make this country perfect, again.
Contributors: Amin Ghobar, Basilio Diaz, Daniel Raidan, Sally Harb, Stephany Said, and Wissam Malaeb.
Wheat Supply and Food Insecurity in Lebanon
A principal element to boost food security in developing countries is matching the demand for wheat as it is one of the world’s most crucial staple crops. Lebanon, with almost 46% of its households being food insecure, imports around 80% of its food needs and is highly dependent on soft wheat to make Arabic flatbread.
Due to the crippling economic crisis in Lebanon, the diminishing foreign reserves to subsidize wheat imports, the Beirut Port Blast that led to the destruction of the grain silos, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine that had an effect on the supply chain and the wheat prices, Lebanon has been struggling with a negative wheat supply shock.
Lebanon’s Current Situation and the Effects on Wheat Resources and Supplies
The country is facing one of the most devastating economic crises globally since the mid-19th century. The Lebanese currency’s more than 90% value loss against the US Dollar, the inflation rate that exceeded 200%, and the grain reserves lost after the destruction of the Beirut Port – that stored around 85% of the country’s cereals with a maximum capacity of 120,000 metric tons of grain – contributed to the problem at hand. Additionally, Russia and Ukraine supply Lebanon with 70% – 80% of its wheat demand. After the invasion, wheat prices increased drastically and Lebanon, a bankrupt country, was unable to fight in the bidding war.
Moreover, the smuggling of subsidized flour and wheat to the Syrian market and the need to fulfill the nutritious needs of the 1.3 million Syrian refugees on the Lebanese grounds made the food security response an immediate priority.
In terms of Lebanon’s agricultural nature, the country relies on the import of wheat because available land that is viable for farming is not enough to meet the country’s demands and make Lebanon self-sufficient. The consumption demand in Lebanon is topped at 450,000 metric tons, and local wheat production only produces around 10-15% of such demand.
Lebanon needs to start implementing short-term and long-term fixes as the citizens are grappling to afford the increasing prices of bread in a country with a limited number of reserves.
Therefore, we came up with solutions that are divided into two levels of fixes
Short-term Fixes
Pursue avenues to continue subsidizing the price of bread. An example of that would be the “Lebanon Wheat Emergency Response Project” where a $150 million loan from the World Bank was taken that will be used in funding the imports for approximately six to nine months.
Long-term Fixes
Support farmers and develop irrigation programs to help increase local production of the wheat market up until it makes up 50% of Lebanon’s total supply. However, Lebanon can only have a 10% to 15% increase every year according to a study done by the Ministry of Agriculture. This means that it could take 5 to 6 years to reach the goal stated above.
In addition to that, rebuilding Lebanon’s national grain reserve by reconstructing the Beirut port silos and building two new storage silos nearby is another solution. This would cost $100 million and would create six months’ worth of reserves at any given time. Many countries have shown interest in helping Lebanon build those.
Finally, turning to the Ministry of Agriculture’s large and rent-free warehouses in Beqaa should be considered, as the government has been relying on private mills for storage which keeps storage levels on a day-to-day basis and paves the way for black markets. These warehouses only need some maintenance and would be ready for use.
