On paper, it was a success story. A flat red line that looked safe, predictable, and almost felt untouchable and unchangeable. But beneath that reassuring flatness laid a system that was quietly breaking apart.
In this visualization, I trace the Lebanese pound (LBP) against the US dollar from the 1970s until today, splitting the story into three distinct eras: the Pre-Fixed Rate Era in yellow, the Stability Era with the official peg in red, and the Crisis Era in blue, where everything unraveled. The goal is not just to show numbers, but to reveal how a long period of apparent stability can mask growing fragility.
Before the peg: A fragile build-up (1970-1997)
The story starts in the 1970s and 1980s, shown in yellow. During this period, the Lebanese pound gradually weakens against the dollar. The line climbs steadily from near-flat values to over 1,500 LBP per USD by the mid-1990s.
What is important and alarming here is the direction of the climb: the Lebanese pound keeps losing value. There is no stability yet, only a slow, visible decline.
By 1997, the rate reaches 1,507.5, which becomes the famous official peg. That point is annotated on the chart because it marks a turning point: from moving exchange rate to a fixed one.
The illusion of stability (1997–2018)
From 1997 to 2018, the line turns red and becomes almost perfectly horizontal.
During those 22 years, the official rate stays pegged at 1,507.5 LBP per USD.
Visually, this flat line had been sending a powerful message which is “The currency is under control and Your money is safe.”
But a flat line doesn’t mean a healthy system. In fact, the opposite was happening. Behind that reassuring red line, public debt was climbing relentlessly. Budget deficits were widening. The entire economy had become dependent on fresh dollars flowing into the banking sector to maintain the illusion. The system was running on borrowed time and borrowed money.
The visualization deliberately keeps this middle section clean: one color, very few marks, a high data-ink ratio. The flatness is visually reassuring. And that’s precisely the problem. The chart shows us exactly what Lebanese citizens saw: a promise of stability that felt permanent. What it didn’t show is what couldn’t be seen in the numbers, was the invisible rot beneath the surface that was forming.
The collapse: 2019 onwards
The calm ends abruptly at 2019, marked with an annotation: “Banking crisis begins.” At first, the rate moves only slightly, from 1,507.5 to around 1,540 LBP per USD. A tiny change after decades of flatness. Barely noticeable.
But this small kink is the first visible crack. The system couldn’t hold.
From 2020 onwards, the line turns blue and shoots upward exponentially. By 2021, the value plummets to around 5,811 LBP per USD which is more than four times the official peg. The curve becomes nearly vertical, showing a visual representation of lost control and shattered trust. Instead of a slow, manageable depreciation, Lebanon experiences a collapse.
This is where the chart stops being just macroeconomics. Each point on that blue line isn’t an abstract number. It’s a family at the supermarket realizing their money buys half as much as last month. It’s a teacher whose salary, once stable, can barely cover rent. It’s life savings that quietly disappear, not because they were spent, but because their value evaporated overnight.
Insights:
What began as a flat, boring line became the steepest crisis in decades. The Lebanese pound went from appearing to be one of the world’s most stable currencies to becoming a cautionary tale of currency collapse.
The visualization tells us something important about systems, trust, and stability itself: a flat line maintained by freezing numbers rather than fixing underlying problems is not stability at all. It’s a mirage. And when mirages disappear, people lose more than just money—they lose faith in the institutions meant to protect them.
The real story isn’t in the numbers. It’s in what the numbers hide, and what happens when the hiding is no longer possible.
Maya is a young woman living in Lebanon who works hard and tries to plan for her future. But lately, her money no longer feels predictable. Prices change week to week, her salary loses value before the end of the month, and even simple decisions like buying groceries or saving feel uncertain. Her problem isn’t just inflation, it’s a loss of confidence in the currency she depends on every day.
What the Visualization Reveals
To understand Maya’s experience, I created a visualization of the Lebanese currency over time.
What we see in the graph is striking:
From 1972 to the mid-1980s, both lines are almost completely flat, showing a long period of predictability.
In 1987, the local currency suddenly rises from 6,457 to 22,638 in 1992 a clear collapse of confidence. The standard rate also increases during this time, but only slightly, reaching 1,741.
After 1992, both lines flatten again for nearly 20 years. The local currency stays around 22,000, while the standard rate stabilizes near 1,500, reflecting a period where trust slowly returned.
The biggest shift happens in 2020 the local currency jumps from 19,598 to 46,508, while the standard rate rises from 1,542 to 5,864.
This steep rise reflects the instability that defines Maya’s daily reality. Each spike represents a loss of confidence; each flat period reflects regained stability.
How We Restore Trust
The visualization shows that the solution is not only financial, it’s behavioral. To support people, we must rebuild predictability, stability, and trust. When the value of money becomes predictable, everyday stress decreases and people regain control over their financial decisions.
The data also proves that stability is possible. After the 1992 spike, the Lira stabilized for nearly two decades. Families were able to save, businesses planned long-term and confidence slowly returned. This demonstrates that rebuilding trust is achievable and when achieved, it transforms people’s ability to plan and move forward.
Rebuilding Trust for the Future
The key insight from Maya’s story is that currency value is not just an economic number; it reflects public confidence. When the line rises sharply, trust collapses. When it stabilizes, trust returns. Rebuilding confidence means reducing sudden shocks, increasing transparency, and helping people make long-term plans. Strengthening trust empowers people like Maya to regain control not only over their money, but over their futures.
In a world where economic resilience is more crucial than ever, Lebanon stands as a testament to the enduring spirit of overcoming adversity. This blog post is a reflection and expansion of those insights, exploring how we can collectively work towards a more robust economy.
The Prelude: Reflecting on Lebanon’s Past Economic Successes
Our journey begins with a look back at Lebanon’s economic landscape, particularly around 2007 and 2008. During these years, Lebanon witnessed a remarkable phase of economic growth, thanks in large part to the collaborative efforts of the government, the central bank, and, crucially, the citizens. This era serves as a beacon of hope and a blueprint for what can be achieved through collective action and strategic economic planning.
The Current Scenario: Understanding the Crisis
Fast forward to the present, and the picture is starkly different. Lebanon faces significant economic challenges, marked by a steep decline in GDP growth, particularly post-2018. The data paints a troubling picture: negative growth rates and a plunging gross domestic savings rate. These indicators are more than mere numbers; they are a reflection of a nation grappling with economic instability.
The Interplay of GDP and Savings: A Dual Focus
A key focus of our analysis is the interplay between GDP growth and savings. A thriving economy typically boosts savings, but the reverse is also true: economic downturns lead to decreased savings due to increased expenditures or borrowing. Lebanon’s current situation, characterized by a combined decline in GDP growth and savings, signals a need for urgent, targeted economic interventions.
Tackling the Crisis: Recommendations for Economic Improvement
The core of our discussion revolves around actionable recommendations to improve Lebanon’s economy. Drawing from past successes and current challenges, these recommendations include:
Fostering Government and Central Bank Collaboration: Just as in the past, strong cooperation between these entities is vital for implementing effective economic policies.
Empowering Citizens: Encouraging entrepreneurship, supporting local businesses, and fostering a culture of economic literacy can help citizens contribute more effectively to the nation’s economy.
Strategic Economic Planning: This involves revisiting fiscal policies, exploring new avenues for economic diversification, and investing in sectors that can drive sustainable growth.
Conclusion: A Call to Action
As we stand at this critical juncture in Lebanon’s economic history, it’s imperative that we learn from our past, understand our present, and actively work towards a better future. The journey ahead is fraught with challenges, but also filled with opportunities for growth and resilience. It’s a journey that requires the collective effort of every Lebanese citizen, policy-maker, and stakeholder. Together, we can steer Lebanon towards a path of economic recovery and prosperity.
