Data Visualization

Blog of the Data Visualization & Communication Course at OSB-AUB

This is my favorite part about analytics: Taking boring flat data and bringing it to life through visualization” John Tukey

Fertility Rate: The Decline

Fertility Rate: The Decline

Throughout history, women’s primary role was to be homemakers that would only perform domestic chores, raise children, and continue the bloodline. A childless woman was branded as barren, and she was frowned upon. In the Middle Ages, people called infertile women witches and followers of the Devil. Motherhood was a moral obligation.

Unfortunately, we still witness such cases in the current era, particularly in African and Middle-Eastern countries. Nafissa, a girl from Niger, is one victim of such a case. “I stopped (going to) school in order to marry,” says the young teen, “It was because of people’s mentality and their prejudices. I was married during a school break, and I became pregnant before I could return. After that, I never returned.” Nafissa now has 5 children and forced to carry out the household chores and take care of her children. How many girls in this world are like Nafissa? How could her life change if she pursued her studies and got a job?

According to World Bank data, the fertility rate was 2.6 births per woman in 2019. A value that is approximately half of what it was in 1960 (5.5). Emerging countries, on average, have greater fertility rates than prosperous countries. Women tend to give birth to fewer than three children in countries where GDP per capita is below $1,000 per year. In countries where GDP per capita is above $10,000 per year, women give birth to no more than two children. The decline in the world fertility rate can be attributed to three main factors:

1. More women are getting an education and seeking to establish their careers before—and sometimes instead of—having a family. SDG-4.3
2. Fewer childhood deaths. SDG-3.2
3. More women in the workforce. SDG-5.5
4. Access to contraception. SDG-3.7

Let’s look at one of the world’s most advanced economies South Korea which has a fertility rate of 1 in 2020. This means South Korean women have, on average, one child, and many others do not have children. The reason behind this is the involvement of women in the economy (60% – female labor force), fewer infants’ death (2.7% mortality rate of infants per 1000 live births), and women pursuing tertiary education (88.6%). On the other hand, Niger recorded the highest number of births per woman over the last years on average, Niger women gave birth to 7 children on average in 2020 with the numbers shown in the dashboard.

However, the relationship between lower fertility rates and higher GDP per capita has been controversial in the last few years. The lower the number of births, the lesser number of individuals joining the workforce, and the slower the economic growth. Would the “replacement value” for dying populations suggested by the UN of 2.1 kids per woman solve the problem? Despite all the efforts to increase fertility rates in developed countries like South Korea and Japan, having a child or not having a child is a choice.

In brief, low fertility rates are a leading economic indicator that women’s empowerment can achieve. The mentioned factors are closely linked: educated women are more likely to know about and use contraception, and contraceptives give women the option to continue their education or career instead of raising multiple children. Also, in an environment with low child mortality, women will give birth to fewer children as they ensure the survival of children.

Infant Mortality Rate in China: A Success Story

At the dawn of the 1990s, the People’s Republic of China was a typical developing nation. The majority of its population lived in poverty mainly in rural areas. The country’s GDP per capita was $318 which was almost equal to that of the African nation of Mali ($317) and much less than the GDP per capita of the South American nation of Guyana ($533.5). However, the most challenging problem that the Asian dragon faced was the high infant mortality rate of 42.7 deaths per 1000 births which was considered high according to UN standards (12 deaths/1000 births). Since then, the government implemented ambitious and bold economic reforms and opened gradually its economy to the rest of the world. The country witnessed an influx of foreign investment that resulted in the increase of the nation’s GDP per capita from $318 in 1990 to $10,144 in 2019! Beijing took advantage of its miraculous economic growth by incrementing investment in its health system. It focused on health financing, human resource development and health information systems and promoted the equalization of health services including maternal and child health services. As a result, the infant mortality rate in China decreased from 42.7 deaths/1000 births in 1990 to 5.9 deaths/1000 births in 2019. In other words, China triumphed in decreasing its infant mortality rate by 86% in almost 20 years, an achievement that even the most developed nations of the world did not accomplish. China is the example of a nation that has benefited from its economic development to decrease infant mortality rate. In this way, it achieved target 3.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations for countries to reach by 2030 -the ending of preventable deaths of newborns to less than 12; and most importantly achieved the health and welfare of its population.

References:

Guo Y, Yin H. Reducing child mortality in China: successes and challenges. Lancet. 2016;387(10015):205-207. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00555-3

Department of Economics and Social Affairs, United Nations: Sustainable Development Goals, Goal 3: https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal3