Youth unemployment remains one of the most urgent socioeconomic challenges across the Middle East. By tracking long-term trends in Lebanon, Jordan, the OECD benchmark, and the global average, a clearer picture emerges of how different countries have navigated the last three decades, and how education connects to opportunity.

Youth unemployment is rising sharply in Lebanon and Jordan.

The long-run trend from 1991 to 2023 reveals a troubling pattern:

• Lebanon starts in the low 20s but steadily climbs upward, especially after 2010, reflecting the country’s deepening economic crisis, political instability, and financial collapse.
• Jordan begins around the mid-30% range and fluctuates over time, but recent years show unemployment rising again, approaching 40%.

In comparison:

• OECD members maintain far lower levels, typically around 10–15%, representing healthier labor markets.
• The world average stays in the mid-teens, serving as a neutral benchmark.

The gap between Jordan/Lebanon and OECD countries has widened over time, highlighting structural challenges in these Middle Eastern economies.

Lebanon stands out for a clear and concerning reason.

Lebanon’s youth unemployment has increased despite rising tertiary enrollment, making it distinct from global patterns.

Unlike OECD countries, where higher education is associated with smoother transitions into the labor market, Lebanese graduates face an economy unable to absorb them:

• Businesses are closing
• Emigration is rising
• The labor market lacks stability
• Economic growth is stagnant or negative

This creates a systemic mismatch between education levels and job availability.

Rising education doesn’t necessarily reduce unemployment.

The tertiary enrollment trends (2000–2023) show:

• OECD members achieve the highest and most consistent growth in tertiary enrollment, and maintain the lowest unemployment rate.
• Lebanon shows strong educational gains but no improvement in employment outcomes.
• Jordan sees a gradual increase but continues to face very high youth unemployment.
• The world average grows steadily, offering a smoother global reference point.

The patterns suggest that education alone does not reduce unemployment.

Instead, the labor market must have:

• Economic stability
• Job creation
• Demand for skilled workers
• A functioning political and financial environment

Without these, even highly educated young people struggle to find work.

The scatterplot reveals the core insight.

By allowing you to choose any year in the dashboard, the scatterplot compares:

• Tertiary enrollment (%)
• Youth unemployment (%)

in Jordan, Lebanon, OECD members, the World, and (in the scatterplot only) Egypt and Türkiye.

Across almost every year:

 Countries with higher tertiary enrollment generally have lower youth unemployment.

But Lebanon and Jordan consistently sit above the trendline, meaning:

• Their youth unemployment is higher than expected
• Their labor markets are not converting education into opportunity
• Structural and economic constraints override the benefits of schooling

Meanwhile:

• OECD countries fall well below the trendline, showing that strong education systems paired with strong economies lead to better youth employment outcomes.

Conclusion

Higher education helps, but only when economies create opportunities for young people. Lebanon and Jordan demonstrate what happens when education expands but economies fail to keep pace. The OECD shows the opposite: stable economies transform education into employment.

The key question becomes: How can Middle Eastern economies create labor markets that reward education rather than punish it?