By Kassem Ibrahim Al Houssaini | Staff Writer
In the first half of November, the 2021 United Nations climate change conference (COP 26) finally took place in Glasgow, after a 1-year delay due to the Covid pandemic. This climate change summit was deemed a critical point for action after the world’s leading countries failed in meeting their previous Paris Agreement goals. The latter was born in 2015 due to a unanimous call for the urgent need to maintain global warming temperature rises below 2°C, and precisely aiming for 1.5 °C. Another aim of the agreement was for wealthier countries to raise $100 billion as annual climate change funding to more vulnerable countries.
For the reasons mentioned above, every country agreed to propose national plans that would help cut down their emissions – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). They also agreed to meet every five years to update their plans according to how the issue develops.
However, with global CO2 levels reaching 420 parts per million (ppm) – the highest level ever recorded – it is reasonable to doubt the validity of the 1.5 °C target as it might appear out of reach. Hence, the aim of this article is first to underline the need for such a target, and second to discuss the key outcomes agreed at COP 26 regarding the matter.
At first sight, the 0.5 °C gap between projections and “idealities” might seem meagre. However, its effects are far more significant and noticeable to the eye. Let’s take a closer look at biodiversity. With a 1.5 °C rise, about 4% of our terrestrial land is expected to undergo ecosystem transformations, compared to 13 % if the global temperatures were to rise by 2 °C. Moreover, with a 1.5 °C increase, it is projected for the Arctic Ocean to become ice-free in the summertime once every 100 years, something that could happen every 10 years if the temperatures were to increase by 2 °C. The same trend goes for rising sea levels, species extinction, extreme weather, and even poverty. This can be explained by the fact that 1.5 °C is the threshold limit value for which global warming consequences are still “reversible”, and that for each 0.1 °C exceeding it, impacts will increase exponentially and irreversibly.
When it comes to COP 26, a series of pledges were established to keep the 1.5 °C target alive. One of these is a consensus by more than 100 world leaders to end and reverse deforestation by 2030. Another is a commitment to reduce methane emissions by 30% between 2020 and 2030, reducing the temperature rise by an estimated 0.2 °C. And, a last unexpected yet welcomed one is the cooperation established between the world’s two largest economies and CO2 emitters – US and China – to attenuate the impacts of global warming. Also, for the first time ever, an explicit agreement was set regarding fossil fuels since they represent the major cause of global warming, resulting in 89% of global CO2 emissions in 2019.
However, now more than ever, people are demanding actual change so that all these agreements and pledges don’t end up being mere ink on paper. Indeed, the 1.5 °C target won’t be achieved by itself, but rather requires collaborative work and implementation to reach the common goal.
Finally, whether COP 26 was a success or not is open for debate, but it is undeniable that the “Glasgow Climate Pact” that emerged from the conference can and will save us, but only if properly implemented.