The Lebanese government is facing a decline in its global ranking of governmental effectiveness due to political and economic turbulence. This turbulence significantly impacts various aspects of governance, as measured by the Government Effectiveness Index developed by the World Bank Group. The study examines the relationship between the government effectiveness index, government expenditures, and inflation rate among Middle East Arab countries, including Lebanon, to provide a comparative analysis.

An analysis of the Lebanese Government Effectiveness Index reveals a consistent decline over time. Starting at a value of 40 in 2003, the index steadily decreases, reaching a concerning low of 3.85 in 2021. The graph visually illustrates this collapse, coinciding with the peak of political challenges and an economic collapse in 2015 and the Syrian civil war in 2011. The inflation and government expenditure indexes follow a similar path, indicating the interdependence of governmental effectiveness and various aspects of the economy. For instance, the inflation rate remained steady below 10% until 2018, where it sharply rose to 150%. Similarly, the government expenditure index, averaging above 12% before 2018, experienced a steep decline below 2% at 2021.

To elevate the ranking of Lebanese governmental effectiveness, it is imperative to address the underlying issues stemming from political, security and economic turbulence. These targeted measures should be implemented internally, acknowledging that the challenges primarily originate from internal factors rather than external ones. By conducting a comparative analysis with surrounding Arab Mediterranean countries that have faced more severe political and security challenges, such as the Arab Spring in 2013, which had a profound impact on their governance systems, we can glean valuable insights. For instance, Tunisia, with a comparable population and political system, witnessed a decline in governmental effectiveness indexes from 43% in 2013 to 33% in 2021. Similarly, when examining Morocco, we observe a decline in governance from 42% in 2013 to 35% in 2021. Nevertheless, both governments managed to maintain expenditures, thereby avoiding significant inflation. These comparisons underscore the potential impact of addressing internal challenges and provide valuable lessons for enhancing Lebanese governmental effectiveness.

To tackle political turbulence, it is essential to foster political stability through consensus-building and the establishment of effective governance structures. Additionally, addressing economic stability necessitates the implementation of reforms that target inflation, unemployment, and economic instability while managing expenditures. Enhancing public service delivery, strengthening the civil service, and promoting transparency and accountability in policy formulation and implementation are key components of the solution. To achieve this, it is crucial to foster economic resilience that can withstand the impact of political and security factors. Thank you for your attention.

The effectiveness of the proposed solution can be validated by monitoring the changes in the Government Effectiveness Index over time. As measures are implemented, improvements in the ranking will indicate progress in governmental effectiveness. This will positively impact overall country indexes, enable increased government expenditures, attract investments, boost the economy, and reduce the inflation rate.

Based on the analysis, it is evident that political, security and economic turbulence significantly impact the global ranking of Lebanese governmental effectiveness. To address this issue, it is recommended to foster political stability, implement economic reforms, enhance public service delivery, strengthen the civil service, and promote transparency and accountability. These recommendations aim to improve governance, create a more stable and effective government, and benefit the Lebanese people. Additionally, these actions will have a positive impact on the overall country indexes, allowing for increased government expenditures, attracting investments, boosting the economy, and reducing the inflation rate.